Losing streak calculator
How likely is a run of losses over a whole session? Set the multiplier you play for, the length of the streak and the number of bets. The answer is exact, not a simulation.
Optional. Pick a casino and a title, and the calculator uses the RTP in our data for it. Only titles with an RTP figure are listed.
A generic value. Change it to the RTP your game shows.
At this RTP the bet wins 49.50% of the time.
Losing streaks by length
| Losses in a row | One set of bets | Within the session | Average bets until it | Martingale stakes lost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 12.88% | 100.00% | 14 | 7 |
| 5 | 3.28% | 97.07% | 59 | 31 |
| 6 | 1.66% | 81.76% | 120 | 63 |
| 7 | 0.84% | 56.59% | 239 | 127 |
| 8 | 0.42% | 33.87% | 476 | 255 |
| 10 | 0.11% | 9.80% | 1,871 | 1,023 |
| 12 | 0.03% | 2.56% | 7,341 | 4,095 |
| 15 | 0.0035% | 0.33% | 57,018 | 32,767 |
How streak chances are worked out
One fixed set of k bets is lost with the losing chance raised to the power k. A session contains many overlapping sets, so the chance of meeting a streak somewhere is higher. The calculator counts, bet by bet, the chance that no such streak has appeared yet. It uses a recurrence, and no rounding or simulation is involved.
Worked example
Betting on 2.00x at an RTP of 99.00%, each bet is lost 50.50% of the time. Ten given bets in a row are all lost with a chance of 0.11%. Over 200 bets a streak of ten appears somewhere with a chance of 9.80%, and on average the first one comes after 1,871 bets.
What a streak does to a staking plan can be played through in the strategy simulator. Whether a balance outlasts it is the question behind how many bets a bankroll lasts. The win chance itself comes from the game, for crash titles from the chance of reaching a crash multiplier.
What streak odds do not mean
- A streak does not make a win more likely. After nine losses the tenth bet has the same chance as the first.
- The figures describe a session before it starts. They cannot say when a streak will come.
- The chance assumes the same bet every time. If you change the multiplier during the session, each stretch has its own odds.
Questions about losing streaks
How common is ten losses in a row at 2.00x?
In 200 bets at 99.00% RTP it happens with a chance of 9.80%. In 1,000 bets the chance rises to 41.30%.
Why do streaks feel more frequent than the odds suggest?
People think of the chance of one set of bets. A session has hundreds of starting points, and a streak can begin at any of them. Six losses in a row appear in 200 bets at 2.00x with a chance of 81.76%.
What happens to streaks at high multipliers?
They get long. At 10.00x each bet is lost 90.10% of the time, and a run of 20 losses appears in 200 bets with a chance of 96.28%.
Can a staking system survive long streaks?
A system that doubles after each loss needs a stake of 1,024 base units for the eleventh bet. Streaks of that length are a matter of time, which is how such systems lose a bankroll.